A well-grounded approach to design forecasting would be beneficial to the evolution of human society. All societies require visionaries who can foresee evolving needs and predict emerging trends. Study of historical trends indicates that there are changing and growing expectations and propensities that govern new design developments. Every very new invention & innovation represented evolution of our social needs and expectations, changed behavior patterns, lifestyles and concerns. It also opened new technological solution space and design possibilities. A well grounded forecasting framework will enable the decision makers, leaders and industries to generate long-term policies, strategies and plans to bring desired and likely circumstances in close alignment with present potentialities and future challenges. Thus, it would help channel energy and resources collectively for a more planned and sustainable future.
This dissertation looks at various forecasting approaches used in the industry and evaluates their relevance and application while designing for future. The researcher identified considerations/parameters that tend to maximize propensity for impactful and successful product solutions. These considerations/parameters can be further grouped together under human, technological and environmental considerations/opportunities.
The researcher followed a multi-pronged search through historical study of modern design movements, successful products from the past century and award winning contemporary products to identify these design considerations/parameters. Word content analysis of recent technical literature and brainstorming workshops were also conducted. Multiple level assessments and surveys/statistical analyses through SPSS software were carried out to ascertain the varying relevance of three categories, each with multiple parameters, verified across product categories and extent of future.
The findings were used to propose a comprehensive Design Futures (DeF) framework that can be used for forecasting design possibilities. This can be of immense help in exploring meaningful design possibilities and developing innovations for a sustainable and better future for all.
Citation Link: Malhotra, S. (2016). Framework for forecasting design possibilities (Doctoral dissertation), IIT Delhi.
Read the abstract here (Dissertation hosted at IIT Delhi website)